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A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.

That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.

"The Irish government must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."

Appeal for Wider Discussion

Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."