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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award follows a simple pattern. It commonly acts as a type of apology. We regret we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the coach who engineered the most dramatic improvement wins the prize. However, it sparks an annual argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or merely the biggest upset.

Yet the current race is distinctly different. The pool of contenders is remarkably talented. It has been the year of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with reigning division champions falling away and recent underperformers improving collectively. During an typical year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in this chaotic and entertaining season, he's up against five other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the ideal ballot should look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his otherworldly talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained excellence. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an offense built solely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a steady dose of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that creates wide-open receivers consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been able to conjure big plays from broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has worked. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the building with the immense pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical season, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current isn't a normal season!

Where Johnson's case runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. But he falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has nailed the leadership aspects, which wasn't a given after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff cocktail of youth and experience, he trusted newbies. From the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet he has pulled everyone and everything together.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year setback had the team wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed after that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him just one spot ahead of peers.

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